Monday Math Madness #8: Winner!

The results are in, and the winners for MMM #8 is. . . Heather Lewis! Thanks to everyone who participated! I wonder which MENSA book she'll choose?
The Answer
Here is Heather's explanation:
The answer is that Martin has a 29.6% chance of making it safely. As an aside, there's a 77.8% chance that at least one route is bully-free but, sadly, much of the time Martin doesn't pick the bully-free route.
I found two ways of solving this problem. One is brute force: There are 4 people and each picks a route (1, 2, or 3) at random, so there are 3^4=81 possible scenarios, all of which are equally likely. I listed those, and then for fun marked which ones had a possible open route (by just checking if the product of the three bullies' routes equaled 6). There were 63 of those. Then I marked in which cases Martin was on a route that none of the bullies took. There were 24 of those. So the probability of there being an open route at all is 63/81 (the 77.8%) and the probability of Martin being safe is 24/81 (the 29.6% chance).
Another way is to use probability. Martin will pick some route home, and the probability for each of Nelson and his brothers (Darryl and Darryl?) picking a different route than Martin is 2/3 [each]. This means there is a (2/3)^3 = 8/27 approx 0.296 chance that Martin gets home safely.
20 Jun 2008 Quan Quach 1 comment








"It would take 7 iterations to determine the three fastest macbooks. I'll include a visualization as well since this is tough for me to explain properly.
